Weekend crypto update: A market still in a dead end?

Today, in this unique format, discover a technical analysis that allows you to make a comprehensive update of the situation in the cryptocurrency market. For several months, the market has been in a downward trend, affected by the macroeconomic situation. What could he accommodate for us in the future? In this crypto point, let’s take a look at various elements such as the total market value of cryptocurrencies, the total capitalization of altcoins, bitcoin dominance, the balance of power between Ethereum and Bitcoin as well as the Altperp index.

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The cryptocurrency market is less than 1000 billion, but for how long?

Total market value of cryptocurrencies (1W)

First, we can start our analysis with the total market value on a weekly basis. After losing its $ 20 trillion / $ 1.12 trillion support from the summer of 2021, a sharp drop occurred to make a comeback at 2017’s all-time high of $ 761 billion. After returning from this level, the weekly trend is still bearish. The current challenge is as follows: Do not close below 761 billion to avoid a downward acceleration.

In the event that the market is enticed to expand the trend, keep in mind levels below the all time high, which are as follows:

  • The $ 285/320 billion pivot zone

These technical areas were important in the past, it is very likely that the market will respond at this level. This will of course depend on the fluctuations in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the direction these two assets will take.

Price of the total market value of cryptocurrencies on a daily scale
Total market value of cryptocurrency (1D)

Finally, to conclude the overall market value, let’s briefly discuss the daily scale. The observation is simple, it is useless to want to understand the future movement, as we are in an interval situation between 963 billion and 833 billion dollars. Until we see a solution, we will not be able to set more specific price targets. If the market is led to continue its recovery by breaking resistance upwards, we can imagine a potential return to support in the summer of 2021. This would make it possible to achieve a withdrawal on a weekly scale.

What about the market without bitcoin and ethereum?

Price of the total market value excluding bitcoin and ethereum on a weekly scale
Market value price for cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (1W)

Now it seems interesting to talk about the market situation without taking Bitcoin and Ethereum into consideration. You can see the price comeback for several weeks at the highest level in 2017 of $ 358 billion. Key level where altcoins have been going on a siding for several weeks, will it give way in favor of sellers? A bearish move in Bitcoin and Ethereum will most likely trigger another bloodbath for altcoins. What levels should be monitored in this context?

  • The $ 179 billion (a resistance from the 2018 bear market)
  • The $ 102 billion (a resistance during which the market has evolved over three years)
  • The pivot zone for 2018-2020 is 50/55 billion
Price of the total market value excluding bitcoin and ethereum on a daily scale
Market value price for cryptocurrencies excluding bitcoin and ethereum (1D)

At the moment, even though we are seeing a recovery in altcoins with a very short-term bullish trend, it is necessary not to be fooled by a technical recovery. This in no way bodes well for a long-term revival of the financial markets given the current context. If altcoins want to maintain this momentum, the goal is to register a high over 394 billion. This would allow for a rising top and bottom, the basis for a trend in the financial markets, if we follow the Dow theory.

Has bitcoin let go in recent weeks?

Course of bitcoin dominance in the cryptocurrency market on a weekly basis
Bitcoin Dominance Price (1W)

Since May 2021, the dominance of Bitcoin has fluctuated between 39.5 / 40% and 48 / 48.5%, all with a pivot zone since November 2021 of 43.20%. In early June, the momentum of bitcoin dominance was strong. Given an explosion of 50% dominance, another rejection of 48.5% took place. This shows that altcoins have not shown their full potential.

Can we, when we jump out of the pivot zone, see a strong rally in Bitcoin in the second half of July? This is the preferred scenario given the current context, it would be an opportunity to put an end to the daily trend of the overall market value excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, a bearish outbreak of the pivot zone needs to be considered with a return of dominance to 40%. You need to keep this scenario in mind while knowing that the prospect of a pivot zone maintenance is preferable at the moment.

Ethereum or Bitcoin? What is the most solid cryptocurrency in this period full of uncertainties?

Ethereum cryptocurrency price against bitcoin on a weekly basis
Ethereum price against bitcoin (1W)

After meeting resistance of 0.085 bitcoin in November 2021, Ethereum lost a technical zone of 0.07 bitcoin. Subsequently, registering a technical rebound with resistance of 0.075 bitcoin, Ethereum was unable to resume a sustainable increase. Thus, he triggered a sharp downward movement, which now puts him in a situation of underperformance against the king of cryptocurrencies. Now resting on a long-term level of 0.055 bitcoin, this has allowed altcoins to recover. This partly explains the decline in dominance.

Although the daily trend is bullish on this pair, the weekly trend is not. Therefore, it is imperative to have a bearish scenario. A weekly close below this gray area with a loss of 0.053 bitcoin is likely to lead to further bearish acceleration. Thus, the levels to be monitored are as follows:

The bearish scenario will still hold until Ethereum manages to regain the technical level of 0.059 bitcoin.

And the altperp index, what about him?

Each week I will address a different index, available on FTX. These indices are groupings of different cryptocurrencies. If you are concerned about the underperformance of an altcoin alone, you can place yourself on the altperp index. It is a way of considering the recovery in a very specific sector by taking less risk (yes, no risk does not exist). So you understand, the altperp index is experiencing similar fluctuations but not identical.

The price of the ALTPERP cryptocurrency against the dollar on a daily basis
Altcoin Index Perpetual Futures Daily Price

What we can see on the ALTPERP index is the respect for the technical levels, which are much more relevant in relation to the simple total capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently the index is moving between resistance at $ 1777 and support at $ 1471/1494. ALTPERP to be rejected on the resistor with a lower peak than the previous one. It’s heading towards the pivot zone for $ 1638.

What we can imagine is a return to the green zone with an eruption of the pivot zone. The goal for sellers is to push the index below $ 1494 to bring it into a daily downward trend. Currently we have a bearish signal with a lower peak, but no confirmation. Buyers could also arrive earlier than expected in the pivot zone to try a new $ 1777 breakthrough.

Alas, we are already at the end of the weekend’s first crypto point. We have just provided an overview of various aspects of the cryptocurrency market. Now you are in the process of balancing power between Bitcoin and Ether. Since the latter is in an underperforming situation, a new bearish leg could drag altcoins down with it. In a few days, the rebound built on this first half of July could thus be erased in favor of bitcoin dominance. In this context, do not let go and see the mentioned levels throughout the technical analysis. Be prepared for the whims of the market and adapt to the price action.

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