Hit or miss…– After a successful implementation of The Merge on sepoliathere are only a few crucial steps left before the update is complete.Ethereum. Yet within weeks all buyers’ hopes were dashed by a strong selling force. The month of June was particularly complicated for the blockchain Vitalik Buterin who lost 45%. Those who firmly believe in the project continue to accumulate during this complicated period. Ethereum is currently attempting a trend change, but bulls Will they finally succeed in breaking the sales force that has been in place since the beginning of April? Let’s analyze the second capitalization of the cryptocurrency market.
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Ethereum Weekly: Back to $900
Ethereum has already lost more than 80% in a few months. The decline may continue if the buyers do not show up quickly:
Ethereum is about to meet its resistance weekly at $1,300. A rejection of this resistance would open the way for a return on bracket for $900. The weekly trend is honestly bearish and below the bearish trend line implemented a few months ago. Now there is no change in the trend: the price is therefore still very high crazy. You will have to wait at least one bullish engulfing candle or a double bottom confirmed.
that momentumwhich helps describe the strength of buyers against the strength of sellers, always shows a trend bearish. It will be necessary to break free from the trend line to regain buying power.
To see that the buyers are present, it will be necessary to exceed one resistance and for example draw a tidy Between $1,300 and $1,900 for this summer.
Ethereum Daily: Double resistance at $1,250
Ethereum is trending bearish weekly. On a daily basis, the price tries to change the dynamics by exceeding resistance at $1,250 :
Ethereum is trying to third time the passing of $1,250. The price comes up against another resistance with the presence of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). If these resistances give way, the target is a return between $1,500 and $1,700 (shorter rereading area). A break of these resistances would show the presence of buying at these price levels.
The daily momentum is encouraging. The bearish trend line from late March has recently given way. Now you need to continue climbing while holding support (green) to 40 of RSI.
Two short-term scenarios for Ethereum
In the very short term, Ethereum has a chance to play. If the bears hold out, there is a good chance of getting back close to the low at $880 :
In 1H, Ethereum blocks at $1,250. The bears manage to push prices back. However, the more a resistor is touched, the more likely it is to give. There are therefore two short-term options:
- Bearish : rejection and breakout of the bullish trend line. The price could then return to the lows found on June 18.
- Bullish : resistance gives way and the buyers push towards 1.618 – 2 Fibonacci extension between $1,500 and $1,670.
For traders this will bewait for a bullish or bearish breakout to take a stand. Given the current trend, the probability is tilted towards a decline and a return to $880. Nevertheless, there is even in a downward trend reboundsand it can happen if the bulls manage to break through the resistance.
Ethereum vs bitcoin: everything is in play now!
Ethereum outcompeted Bitcoin throughout 2021. This has enabled the prosperous health of altcoins. Since the beginning of 2022 has the king of cryptocurrencies has regained control of the market and Ethereum underperforms :
If we objectively look at the price of Ethereum in relation to Bitcoin, the trend is bearish and the course arrives at resistance. The probability is oriented towards a couple falls. This would hurt Ethereum a lot, which could then go back below the psychological threshold of $1,000. It would also weaken altcoins.
ONE another scenario would potentially appear. This is the one shown on the graph. Remember, at the end of 2021, Ethereum draws a “W” in time units three days before falling. The course made one DETOUR before returning to the resistance and also falling. It is quite possible to do the same again during the resistance.
If the price of Ethereum against Bitcoin reaches overcome resistance in three-day and weekly time units, this would show that the price is in one tidy since May 2021. This scenario is a optimistic scenario. Actually altcoins could take advantage of it to appear during the summer, a favorable period for altcoins given low quantities During this period.
Ethereum: on-chain analysis
Ethereum deposits on exchanges
The on-chain analysis makes it possible to know acting behavior. Recently, not insignificant amounts of ethereum have been deposited on exchanges:
As we observed withdrawals of Ethereum for over a year, players have changed their behavior recently. Since the beginning of June, there have been large amounts of Ethereum deposited on exchanges. It may be related to surrender after a fall of 75% since the beginning of April.
The passage below $2,000 must have done level damage emotional leading players to massively deposit Ethereum into the exchanges. We need to be careful if this trend continues.
The whales do not seem to be interested in the current prices
That whales are units with more than 1,000 BTC in the wallet. In the case of Ethereum, it is interesting to see the whales have more than 10,000 ETH in the wallet :
In 2021, these entities bought Ethereum heavily, perhaps in light of the transition from Proof of work to Proof of effort. After the fall in May 2021, the whales decided to distribute scored the top on Ethereum. Lately, the whales had bet on the rise by buying Ethereum at a price close to it $3,000.
Since the fall and the passage below the threshold of $1,000the whales don’t think so not interested at current prices. This doesn’t seem illogical, because these devices tend to buy when the trend is up and to sell when the curve becomes parabolic. It will certainly be necessary for the price to rise again before going through the portfolios with more than 10,000 ETH to massively buy back Ethereum.
Ethereum buyers need to show up quickly to avoid another drop that would drag altcoins lower. Against Bitcoin, Ethereum is bearish. It would be necessary to reintegrate the range quickly to avoid further declines. The players seem pessimistic and could have even capitulated if we look at the data regarding deposits and withdrawals on the exchange platforms. Whales are not buying Ethereum now, even if prices look attractive.
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