In this new Wednesday analysis, let’s take a look at one of the most important blockchains in the crypto ecosystem. The goal is as follows: analyze the native token to take stock of the price structure. So you got it, AVAX is in the spotlight for today’s crypto nugget. Is it in a situation that promotes a bullish development, or on the contrary, are the sellers out? Let’s go directly to TradingView.
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AVAX in clear bearish momentum
After developing under resistance during the first part of 2021, AVAX pulled back during the summer of 2021. Subsequently, it exploded to the upside, registering an all time high at $147. AVAX has reversed and is now trading in a bearish swing pattern. This pattern has a high of $103.62 and a low of $13.71. Moreover, the internal structure is still bearish. Until $29.11 will not be picked up, we will not have a weekly reversal signal. To better understand the recent development of the price, it is necessary to go on a smaller time scale.
If there is a trend change on the weekly time unit, we can consider new bullish targets. But at the moment there is nothing to report and we need to monitor the low at $13.71. In case of loss of the latter, AVAX will most likely return below $9.32. This price action will allow it to seek liquidity below the weekly low of Summer 2021. Without further ado, let’s move to the daily time unit.
A lackluster trend on a daily scale
Although the swing pattern is also bearish on this time frame, we can see that the trend is bullish on AVAX. Therefore, we need to see the development of the price between the 13.78 dollars and $29.11. This upward trend materializes with the strength of the demand zones that AVAX jumps on every time. You can see that the bearish CHoCH point ($19.55) is at the confluence of two demand zones, one of which is a flip zone. After breaking a supply zone (shown in red) on the upside, the price has returned to the demand zone at the beginning of this movement to reverse.
The price managed to initiate a nice bullish momentum within this swing pattern. The peak should theoretically be preserved. Thus, the perfect pullback would be for the price to return to this level without closing higher. Hoping for a returnAVAX at this level the asset must break the supply zone upwards. This will allow a break in the structure to maintain the bullish momentum of the internal structure. If AVAX breaks its swing high, this will trigger a change in structure on the weekly time frame. Conversely, the first sign of a downward reversal would be a return of the price below $19.55. This breakout level can be raised if AVAX continues to record new highs.
Watch out for AVAX’s situation against Bitcoin
Against Bitcoin, we are at a key moment that will provide AVAX’s trend over the next few weeks. The goal is simple: AVAX must break out of the red zone, which is currently resisting. This would allow him to record a new high to continue surpass Bitcoin. If it does, it will likely return to its swing high, and at best we may see a change in structure on a daily basis. This would allow AVAX to do well to continue rising against the dollar in the event that bitcoin is also in a bullish configuration.
But if it fails and it continues to register peaks and troughs lower than the previous ones. We will have a confluence of signals that can warn us about the end of the uptrendAVAX versus Bitcoin. In fact, we will have the loss of an oblique support, the failure of the resumption of a resistance and potentially the loss of a horizontal level which marks 50% of the swing area. If the first gray zone is lost, we will have to see the first orange zone, which is a supply zone, as well as the lower levels, which may mark the recovery of AVAX against bitcoin. On the graph you can find some comments on the different possible scenarios.
Here we are at the end of the analysis of a haveltcoin which has managed to hold above its summer 2021 levels. Nothing is decided yet as long as we miss a reversal in price on a weekly scale. Currently, we are simply on a bullish correction in a bear market. So you should monitor identified key levels on the pair, regardless of whether it is against the dollar or bitcoin. Since the daily trend is bullish, we need to consider reasonable bullish targets until proven otherwise. This will of course depend on the momentum towards bitcoin and the path the asset takes.
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